After seeing how GOP has supported Fletcher, why would Northup want to run?

As rumors continue to swirl abou the possibility of former U. S. Rep. Anne Northup challenging her former delegation mate Ernie Fletcher in the gubernatorial primary, we have to wonder why Northup would even consider doing such a thing.

Given the up-close view she's had of Fletcher's administration, and her support of his bid four years ago, surely she knows what she's setting herself up for should she run and win.

But if not, we'll remind her -- and you.

First of all, Northup has seen firsthand just how much support a Republican governor can expect from the party hierarchy when the waters get rough: Absolutely none.

In fact, Northup has been as guilty of that as any of the rest of Kentucky's D. C. delegation. We don't recall her speaking up in support of Fletcher or in condemnation of Greg Stumbo, and she certainly had plenty of chances.

If Mitch McConnell won't slam Stumbo for going after Fletcher, why does Anne think McConnell would slam Stumbo for going after her (as he inevitably would?)

The message to Fletcher, or to any other Republican, has been quite clear: We will help you get elected and we will select people to work in your administration. But if trouble comes up, or if any of our people (Dan Druen is prime example number one) cause problems, well, you're on your own.

Northup has seen that this state's leading Republicans won't support one of their own. So why would she want to subject herself to that?

Maybe they're telling her, "It'll be different this time." But isn't that often what a cheating or abusive spouse says? And doesn't that promise often get broken within a matter of days?

Anne, you've been warned. You cannot count on Mitch McConnell or Jim Bunning or Hal Rogers for support.

At least Ron Lewis and Ed Whitfield have had the courage and integrity to speak up for their former colleague. God bless them for that.

But should Northup somehow convince herself that she can count on Mitch and Hal for backup, and if she runs and wins, gubernatorial succession will come into play.

To win in Kentucky, Northup will need a statewide network. She will need campaign chairs in each county, volunteers to knock on doors and make phone calls, and she will also have to call on the party officials in each county for help.

Those people won't expect to work for nothing. If Northup wins, they will be calling on her administration for favors, just as they did in the Fletcher administration. They will most certainly be wanting jobs for Republicans in the ongoing effort to wrest the merit system from control of the Democrats.

What will Northup do? Will she tell them no? If so, she will be committing political suicide. Those people who worked so hard for her in 2007 would certainly not be willing to do it again in 2011 if she doesn't pay attention to their wants and needs. If she attempts to avoid the same kind of scenario that brought Greg Stumbo knocking on Fletcher's door bearing a poision ivy bouquet, she'll be sinking her re-election bid.

The local party loyalists and supporters will expect to be taken care of, and they will have every right to do so.

The current crop of Democratic candidates is a very weak field. Even sporting the scars of Stumbo's assault, Fletcher isn't in as much trouble in his re-election bid as the Democrats and the press think, or hope, that he is. There is certainly no need for the party hierarchy to be pressing for a candidate "who can win in November" because Fletcher is still certainly capable of that. Indeed, as we've said all along, if the party hierarchy has fears about Fletcher's re-electability, it has only itself to blame because it didn't fight back against Stumbo's attempted rape of the party and its governor.

If Anne Northup is as smart as we think she is, she'll step back and reassess her political future and determine that a gubernatorial run in 2007 is not part of that future. Even if every Republican official lines up to support her, she has already seen how much support a Republican governor can expect when the waters get choppy. Why she'd subject herself to that, especially in the wake of her recent defeat and the death of her son last year, is beyond our comprehension.

They may promise you the moon, Annie, but they won't deliver. Keep that in mind as you ponder your next move.