Friday, November 09, 2007

Did low turnout, poll statistics play a huge role in Fletcher's defeat?

For weeks, the polls predicted a double-digit loss for Gov. Fletcher, and that's exactly what happened.

Several Republicans and observers think that those polls were a self-fulfilling prophecy in that the dismal numbers caused lots of GOP voters to stay home.

We heard from one Republican activist in a staunchly-GOP county that went for Beshear. He said thusly:

"Every d--n Democrat in the county voted, but the Republicans just sat home on their @$$e$ and didn't turn out."

He placed part of the blame on the local party chair, who he said was not active in organizing the local party and getting the vote turned out in a county that should have overwhelmingly gone for Fletcher.

In another county, a very active community leader said she perceived that a lot of people who would otherwise vote for Fletcher took a look at the polls, said, "What's the use," and didn't go vote. This woman, whose family owns a newspaper, went as far as saying she thought polls should be outlawed because they unduly influence supporters of the trailing candidate to give up hope and not vote.

This is the equivalent of giving up when you're 20 points behind with 10 minutes to go in the second half, and quitting, and ending up getting blown out by about 35 points.

Preliminary observations we've seen in other Republican counties seem to bear this out; that Democrats turned out in force but Republicans, sensing a lost cause, skipped the election.

Had they voted, they may not have pulled it out for Fletcher, but they certainly could have made it closer, and made Beshear and his supporters sweat a little.

3 Comments:

At 5:27 PM, November 09, 2007, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ernie Fletcher lost because of Ernie Fletcher. Forgy is as ususal wrong. The Jefferson Co. GOP did not cause him to lose Owlsley, Leslie, Edmonson, Wayne, and Warren Counties which vote significantly Republican and were counties in which he carried over Northup and Harper by 50 points. Republicans did not vote because of his embarassing campaign (i.e. "no casino tour," KY Central, Gay bashing, 10 Commandments posting on election eve, no message, etc.) and because his terrible staff did not have any legitimate organization in place that would stick through hard times. He pissed the good republicans off from day one. He and his staff were a terrible political failure.
Terrible LINK people, young and dumb GOLD staff, bullies in Transportation, no relationship whatsoever with House republicans, and no real gut feeling for rural politics all lead to his downfall.

 
At 9:19 PM, November 11, 2007, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Steve Beshear appointed former Patton Personnel Cabinet Secretary Carol Palmore to head his personnel transition team. That's like the farmer appointing the fox to guard the henhouse.

In 2003 the Executive Branch Ethics Commission issued advisory opinions 03-07 and 03-08 which rebuked Patton for abusing the merit system. In 03-08, the commission found that county patronage chiefs merely called the Patton office and refered people for merit positions.

Patton's people then called the various government agencies to tell them who to hire. Palmore was the person who was supposed to keep that from happening.

Beshear's appointment of Palmore has to be a joke, or Beshear is to stupid to be Governor or Beshear thinks that the liberal press will run cover for him on this.

 
At 9:21 PM, November 11, 2007, Anonymous Anonymous said...

By the way, there are stacks of documents that the Executive Branch Ethics Commission gathered in its investigation of Patton's abuse of the merit system. The commission shared the information with Chandler when he was AG. Chandler of course, failed to act.

 

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