Friday, May 11, 2007

When in doubt, lie about your poll numbers

Anne Northup supporters are now claiming that their internal polling, as well as internal polling of other candidates, now shows her with a 4 to 5 point lead on Ernie Fletcher. The rumor was first reported on Kentucky Progress, and later picked up by other blogs.

However, no sourcing for the rumor was given and there are no polling documents available to confirm that, which is in contrast to the recent Fletcher polling showing them with a 22-point lead on Northup. The polling memo was made available to the public and it would be nearly impossible for her to have made up that big of a deficit in such a short time.

Contrary to what Northup's supporters are hoping and wishing for, the view from here is that Fletcher is gaining strength. Northup's negative and misleading ads are backfiring, and the relentless press attacks aren't helping her any either.

In short, we don't believe those rumors of her dramatic surge in the polls, and that belief was confirmed for us today by a highly-placed source who has knowledge of such things. That information would seem to correspond with information provided to The Conservative Edge by Fletcher campaign manager Marty Ryall, who said they had not seen any recent polling that showed Fletcher as having less than a double-digit lead.

One of us had a conversation with someone in a position to know, who reported that current Fletcher polling shows the incumbent with a whopping 52 percent of the vote among likely Republican voters. That number is subject to vary slightly considering factors such as turnout, but at this point the Fletcher camp is quietly confident that they will win with more than 40 percent of the vote on May 22.

This source also stated that a year ago, even Fletcher was sanguine about his re-election chances. The attitude in the Capitol was, "We've got to go out there and put smiles on our faces and do our jobs and work hard and hope things get better." Now they feel very good not only about the May primary, but the November general election against whomever the Democrats nominate.

We don't have any access to the polling documents that indicate this, but we have no reason to disbelieve what one of us learned today.

Perhaps the Northup supporters hope that if they can spread misinformation about her surging to the lead, they can actually shift some momentum. If they believe what they're sayiing, more power to them. We don't know what Fletcher's vote total will be. It would be great if he tops 50 percent, but we'll be thrilled if he gets 41 percent of the vote and wins the nomination outright.


At 8:01 PM, May 11, 2007, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The only one who has lied about their poll numbers is Ernie Fletcher. 22 points? Please. Another garbage post on the little-read KPac2.

At 8:33 PM, May 11, 2007, Blogger K-Pac II said...

Anonymous 8:01, did you bother to read the polling memo?

The Conservative Edge had it on their site. if you care to look.

No polling firm that wants future business will ever publish, knowingly, false information.

Maybe we are little read, but we'll make two points.

First is that not everyone accepts the truth, which is what's reported here.

Second is that you read it, didn't you?

At 8:37 PM, May 11, 2007, Anonymous Sam Howard said...

Obviously this blog is read by at least one anonymous poster as you indicated as such with your post.

Just because a reader does not post does not mean voters are not reading. I agree with this blog until a release of actual numbers is posted for review I will not speculate as to who has done what.

I will say that the negative campaigning has left a foul taste in the mouths of many good Republican in this state.

At 9:16 PM, May 11, 2007, Anonymous Anonymous said...

If I'm a business man, and just blew 4 million to achieve a distant 3rd place, and the front runner is pulling away, out of site, and the fat lady is warming up, I'm going to 'push'a pole to reel him back in.
Makes sense to me, except its dishonest.

At 9:54 PM, May 11, 2007, Blogger K-Pac II said...

Anon 9:16, even the governor himself doesn't ascribe the same malevolent motives to Billy Harper as he does Anne Northup.

He considers that Northup has betrayed a friendship, and that was even before she went so negative the last couple of weeks. Fletcher was truly personally hurt over Northup's candidacy, and the tone and tenor of it, two months ago. Wonder what he thinks now?

He doesn't seem to hold any ill will toward Harper. We don't think he was as personally close to Billy as he was to Anne. We gather that he considers Billy a former political ally, of which any political figure can claim dozens. Northup is a different story. He feels betrayed and hurt by what she's done.

Sam, thanks for those kind words. We probably could tone the rhetoric down but quite honestly, we have grown sick and tired of what the Democrats and the left-leaning press have done to Fletcher these past three years, and we are even more disgusted that there are Republicans out there who are buying what Greg Stumbo has been selling.

Especially Steve Pence. If the man had any class or dignity, he'd resign rather than stay in office, do nothing, and constantly bad-mouth his boss and make disingenuous and ridiculous assertions about him.

At 11:44 PM, May 11, 2007, Anonymous Anonymous said...

That polling memo was created by Marty Ryall.

At 10:48 AM, May 12, 2007, Blogger K-Pac II said...

Anon 11:44, if your assertion was true, then I suspect we'd have had a "cease and desist" letter from the pollster, telling Conservative Edge to remove the poll memo and retract the story.

No pollster who wants any future business is going to allow misinformation to be spread on its company letterhead.


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